As we plan for the future, perhaps we should take a piece of paper, and draw a line down the center to divide it into two halves. We'll label one side “Evidence” and the other side “Jiminy Cricket”. “Jiminy Cricket” is a short way of saying: “When you wish upon a star, your dreams come true”. We will check out a little math for the “Evidence” side, and leave the Jiminy Cricket side to the “cornucopian economists” and “abiotic/renewable oil” people.

   According to the CIA (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html), world population was about 6,602,224,175 as of July 2007. Next, according to “Fact Monster” (http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0001763.html), the land area of the earth is about 57,393,000 square miles. If we divide world population by world land area, we find that there are about 115.04 people per sq. mile. There are 640 acres per sq. mile which means there are only about 5.56 acres of land per person.

   If we define a standard baseball park as 350x350 ft., then each human being gets slightly less than two baseball parks apiece as his/her allocation. Not all of this land is usable. Some is covered by permanent glaciers, some is deserts, some is jungles, some is mountainous, etc. Of the remainder, we have converted some to parking lots while other portions are covered with our garbage dumps. Our homes, farms, water supplies, and energy sources all have to come from whatever is left.

   If we confine our energy supply to “renewables”, then each person's share also has to come from this “less than two baseball parks” allocation. (To be shared of course with land currently allocated to growing our food supply, etc.) The same goes for fossil fuels. If each person sticks to his share, then it all has to come from an allocation of less than two baseball parks per person.

   Here in the United States, we are using 21 million barrels of oil per day. This is about 3 gallons per person per day. Also, we are using the equivalent of 4 gallons of coal/natural gas per person per day. There are two possible sources as to where it comes from.


   Finally, there is the geology question. On a world-wide basis, how much oil, coal, and natural gas can each person extract from slightly “less than two baseball parks”?

Is the “less than two baseball parks” per person correct, or are the “Jiminy Cricket” people correct? It's what “Peak Oil” is all about.



Also please see:
The Great Rollover Juggernaut http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html
Oil Crunch  http://www.durangobill.com/OilCrunch.html

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